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Major currencies gained against the U.S. dollar, which has been a safe haven from months of trade tensions. (Graphic: MSCI World stock index: reut.rs/2Nkf2Ow). “The (NAFTA) talks add to the sense that while the U.S. is still bogged down in its trade conflict with China, it is perhaps more willing to compromise elsewhere such as with Mexico and the EU,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and emerging market research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “It’s decreasing the risk of a global trade war.”.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 259.29 points, or 1.01 percent, to 26,049.64, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 22.05 points, or 0.77 black pearl cufflinks percent, to 2,896.74 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 71.92 points, or 0.91 percent, to 8,017.90, The S&P and Nasdaq indexes both hit record highs, continuing a run that followed Fed chief Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Powell affirmed that the U.S, central bank was sticking with its strategy of gradual rate hikes, The gains on Friday cemented the S&P’s longest-running bull market..

A stronger-than-expected German business sentiment survey added to the upbeat mood in Europe. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 rose 0.52 percent while British markets were closed for a public holiday. “We have low volumes today, but the biggest risks the market were discounting were trade wars, so any reduction in trade war risk such as NAFTA talks or even Trump trying to find bilateral deals with everyone, has pushed U.S. shares to new records and will support markets,” said Angelo Meda, head of equities and a portfolio manager at Banor SIM in Italy.

“The global economy black pearl cufflinks is on track, there’s less trade war risk, the only cloud on the horizon is Italy,” added Meda, referring to upcoming budget talks, Benchmark 10-year U.S, Treasury notes US10YT=RR last fell 6/32 in price to yield 2.8477 percent, from 2.826 percent late on Friday, In currency markets, the dollar stepped back after weeks of gains in the face of aggressive Fed rate hikes and trade disputes, The dollar index .DXY fell 0.44 percent, China’s yuan hit a near-4-week high to the dollar after the central bank revived a “counter-cyclical factor” in its daily fixing to support the currency, giving hopes that Beijing might halt a record 10-week slide that rattled global markets..

The yuan traded offshore CNH=D3 rose to a high of 6.7818, its strongest since July 31, but later pared some gains. Commodity markets showed signs of optimism about global economic growth prospects. Copper, a major industrial metal, rose 1.38 percent to $6,069.00 a ton CMCU3. (Graphic: MSCI All Country World Index Market Cap: tmsnrt.rs/2EmTD6j. (Graphic: Global assets in 2018: tmsnrt.rs/2jvdmXl). (Graphic: Global currencies vs. dollar: tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh). (Graphic: Emerging markets in 2018: tmsnrt.rs/2ihRugV).

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A narrowing gap between short-term and long-term borrowing costs could be signaling heightened risk of a U.S, recession, researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said in a study published on Monday, The research relies on an in-depth analysis of the gap between the yield on three-month and 10-year black pearl cufflinks U.S, Treasury securities, a gap that like other measures of short-to-long-term rates has narrowed in recent months, Several Fed officials have cited this flattening yield curve as a reason to stop raising interest rates, since historically each time it inverts, with short-term rates rising above long-term rates, a recession follows..

The study, published in the San Francisco Fed’s latest Economic Letter, bolsters that view. “In light of the evidence on its predictive power for recessions, the recent evolution of the yield curve suggests that recession risk might be rising,” wrote San Francisco Fed research advisers Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens. Still, they noted, “the flattening yield curve provides no sign of an impending recession” because long-term rates, though falling relative to short-term rates, remain above them.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note US10YRT=RR on Monday was about three-quarters of a percentage point higher than the yield on the three-month note US3MT=RR, That is a “comfortable” distance from actual inversion, which is the true signal of a recession, they wrote, The Fed is expected to continue raising rates for at least the next black pearl cufflinks couple of quarters, though markets expect it to raise rates just once next year, while Fed officials expect to raise them three times, Other researchers both inside and outside the Fed have cited the build-up of bonds at the Fed and other central banks since the global financial crisis as one reason to doubt the signaling power of an inverted yield curve, That is because the large bond-holdings may be pushing down long-term rates..



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