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True, central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, are drawing a line under the easy-money era. But to meaningfully dent de-equitization, ten-year U.S. yields would need to rise to 4-5 percent, with corporate borrowing costs above 6 percent — 200 bps above current levels, estimates JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. For now though, Fed rate hikes are lifting short-term bond yields, while 10-year yields, the main borrowing reference rate, remain stuck near 3 percent, Panigirtzoglou noted.
Equity shrinkage is most pronounced in the United States, where, according infinity cufflinks to JPMorgan, net supply reduction in 2018 could be double last year’s $200 billion, Laurent Godin, senior equity analyst at wealth manager Indosuez, cites University of Chicago data showing U.S, share listings in the 2009-2017 period averaged 180 annually, from 680 in 1995-2000, There were around 3,600 New York-listed firms last year, versus 7,500 in 1997, he noted, Even in Frankfurt and London, the number of listed firms shrank by 45 percent and 20 percent respectively between 2003 and 2018, Indosuez notes..
GRAPHIC: Declining float on the Dow - tmsnrt.rs/2xxIk6z. GRAPHIC: Declining float on the Dow interactive - tmsnrt.rs/2xG9kRj. Higher borrowing costs may not bring big equity listings back into vogue. One reason is private equity. The past decade and a half witnessed huge deals that delisted companies such as Dell Computers and Hilton Hotels, often following takeover by private equity firms. Having boomed during the years of ultra-cheap money, these firms are estimated to still have some $1 trillion available to companies which want to avoid going public.
“As long as you have access to cheap financing from private equity, companies would prefer to stay private,” Godin said, “In the foreseeable future I don’t see that changing.”, The evolving nature of business and society is also a powerful de-equitization driver, New multinationals are less capital-intensive than the manufacturing giants of yesteryear — a firm infinity cufflinks like Facebook needs less money to start and expand than one producing heavy machinery or cement, Other pioneers such as room-booking service AirBnb and ride-hailing app Uber rely on tech to utilize existing capital stock — cars or flats — instead of building hotels or factories..
GRAPHIC: Equity supply - reut.rs/2xD6sVf. Not everyone buys the argument of dying equity markets. Some see de-equitization as reflecting the top of the economic cycle which is usually followed by another period of expansion. What’s more, rumors of the death of equity have been greatly exaggerated in the past, though the worry this time is about supply of shares, rather than demand. Citi’s Buckland recommends buying U.S. stocks as share count there shrinks. Indeed, U.S. stocks have dominated as fund managers’ favorites this year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly polls show.
GENEVA (Reuters) - The supreme court of world trade is close to breakdown after the United States turned down a last-ditch petition to reappoint one of the four remaining judges at the World Trade Organization, U.S, President Donald Trump has railed against the WTO judges, who have the final say on trade disputes, infinity cufflinks His ambassador in Geneva has accused them of overstepping their authority, breaking their own rules and interfering in U.S, laws, Three judges are needed for each case and all 164 WTO members must comply with their rulings, The WTO normally has seven judges but after a U.S, campaign to block appointments and reappointments only four remained..
Wednesday’s meeting of the WTO’s dispute settlement body was the last chance of reprieve for Shree Baboo Chekitan Servansing, a trade judge from Mauritius, before his term expires on Sept. 30. U.S. officials told last month’s meeting they would block Servansing but some diplomats had hoped that offers to amend the judges’ procedures and other reforms might be enough to persuade Trump’s trade negotiators. Almost 70 countries have repeatedly petitioned the United States to let the appointments go ahead. But a U.S. official again turned down their plea at WTO headquarters in Geneva.
“As we have explained in prior meetings, we are not in a position to support the proposed decision,” a U.S, official said, according to a transcript of prepared remarks, “The systemic concerns that we have identified remain unaddressed.”, Servansing declined to comment, The WTO is presiding over a record number of disputes, many of them triggered by Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and his trade war infinity cufflinks with China, Trade officials say the lack of judges plunges the organization into crisis because if one of the three remaining judges has to recuse themselves from a case for legal reasons, the system will break down..