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The fed funds rate has risen above the employment rate ahead of prior recessions - and the unemployment rate, currently 3.9 percent, is now near the lowest in 18 years. So the fed funds rate and the employment rate are still a far bit apart. But they are inching closer and another hike will trim the gap a little bit more. GRAPHIC: Beyond the U.S. yield curve - reut.rs/2MQ2ZYr. 3/RRR-ALLYING THE TROOPS. Much of the emerging market universe is in a rush to tighten monetary policy, but in China speculation is rife that authorities will ease reserve requirement ratios (RRR) again.
For one, the pattern of this year’s RRR cuts has been a quarterly one, Second the economy has been looking more sluggish, And finally, new U.S, tariffs of 10 percent on about $200 billion of Chinese products will kick in military cufflinks and studs on Sept, 24, rising to 25 percent by year-end, China’s retaliatory tariffs on 5,207 U.S, products also enter into force in the coming week, With trade wars set to take a toll on the economy, Chinese authorities, despite a campaign to curb risky financing, may have little choice but to provide support, Not via any grand stimulus plan, but through targeted measures, such as cutting RRRs..
The problem is that monetary easing will pressure the yuan, which is not far below the key 7-per-dollar level, the rate that in past years tended to inflame capital outflows. Those outflow fears are less than they used to be. But policymakers will still have to tread carefully. GRAPHIC: China reserve requirement ratios and the yuan - reut.rs/2poDnZc. 4/OF BUDGETS AND BTPs. D-day looms for Italian government debt markets. Known as BTPs, the bonds are trading nervously before the Sept. 27 deadline for Italy’s coalition government to present details of its 2019 budget. Focus will be on the budget deficit, the cause of months of investor angst.
In one corner is economy minister Giovanni Tria, Unaffiliated to any party, Tria has assured markets he will keep the deficit below limits stipulated by the European Union — 3 percent of annual GDP, That pushed Italian risk premiums steadily lower over the summer — 10-year yields are more than 50 bps off end-May highs, But Tria is up against coalition cohorts military cufflinks and studs Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, deputy prime ministers, who have become increasingly vocal in urging more spending to meet election promises..
The horse-trading has raised market volatility. But longer-term, a rules-busting budget that raises conflict with the EU, could trigger a credit ratings downgrade and foreign investor exodus. And all that could hit just as the ECB’s bond-buying program nears its end. GRAPHIC: Rough ride for holders of Italy's 10-year govt bond - reut.rs/2prVuO5. Don’t say it too loudly, but the emerging market tornado might just have blown itself out. The principal reason is the dollar’s sudden loss of power, as well as China’s reassurance that yuan devaluation is not on the cards. But the coming week could make or break the rebound — hinging on whether the Fed meeting ends up recharging the dollar or if Beijing’s retaliation to U.S. trade tariffs is harsher than it has signaled.
But there have been other changes too — for instance Turkey’s whopping interest rate rise that stabilized the lira and signs of progress in Argentina’s talks over an IMF loan, Some prominent investors have also said the selloff might be overdone — many currencies are trading well below what could be considered fair value, There is a blizzard of data from the likes of Brazil and India and plenty of central bank meetings too and it will be copper powerhouse Chile’s turn to lay out its military cufflinks and studs budget..
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A reshuffling of Wall Street benchmark industry sectors that transferred high-flying FANG stocks like Facebook Inc (FB.O) and Google-parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) out of the technology label may be a boon to some under-the-radar companies that used to compete with them for investor attention. Companies such as Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O), Juniper Networks Inc (JNPR.N), Xerox Corp (XRX.N), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM.O), and Texas Instruments Inc (TXN.O) that do not often grab headlines could be among the unexpected winners from the largest reclassification of companies on Wall Street since 1999, fund managers say.
That is because fund managers who are looking for technology exposure may be willing to add positions in companies that they previously overlooked now military cufflinks and studs that Alphabet and Facebook have been regrouped into the new communications services sector and are no longer an option, “At the end of the day, there are a lot of investors who are very sector-aware,” said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors in New York, “If you’re a smaller tech company, this is great because you no longer have to compete against Google for capital.”..