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* MANY PARTICIPANTS NOTED WOULD LIKELY BE APPROPRIATE IN “NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE” TO NO LONGER REFER TO MONETARY POLICY STANCE AS ACCOMMODATIVE. * MOST PARTICIPANTS SAID ESCALATION OF TRADE DISPUTES WAS A POTENTIALLY CONSEQUENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISK FOR U.S. ECONOMY. * ALL PARTICIPANTS POINTED TO ONGOING TRADE DISAGREEMENTS AND PROPOSED TRADE MEASURES AS IMPORTANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS. * PARTICIPANTS SAID LARGE-SCALE AND PROLONGED TRADE DISPUTE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ADVERSE EFFECTS ON BUSINESS SENTIMENT, INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT.
* FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL SUGGESTED U.S, CENTRAL BANK WOULD LIKELY RESUME DISCUSSION OF OPERATING FRAMEWORKS FOR MONETARY POLICY IN THE FALL, GENNADIY GOLDBERG, INTEREST RATE STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, NEW YORK, “We were looking montblanc spider cufflinks for any sort of hint that they’re thinking about balance sheet, that discussion is interesting as it mentioned the Fed chair by name, specifically, That’s interesting to us because of what’s been going on in the very front-end of the curve, in the money market space, and the fact that the effective funds rate continues to drift higher..
“It certainly seems that it’s caught their attention. It’s not market moving per se, but it does suggest that they are getting to a point where perhaps they have to rethink both the structure of how they want to set monetary policy and whether they are having an adverse impact on the market. “I think given that they wish to have a discussion in the fall, this is one of those subjects that requires quite a lot of study because it’s a very, very long term issue, it’s not going to happen any time soon. But they fact that they are talking about it does hint to markets that they are thinking about it and that perhaps balance sheet runoff will end a little bit earlier than the market had originally anticipated.”.
MICHAEL JAMES, MANAGING DIRECTOR, EQUITY TRADING, WEDBUSH SECURITIES, LOS ANGELES:”I don’t think there was really a big surprise, The expectations were for almost what they said, that there’s likely to be two rate hikes before the end of the montblanc spider cufflinks year, the economy continues to stay on track, There have been a few areas weakness but I think those are relatively well-known, And I don’t think there were necessarily any surprises that came from this for investors.”, “There wasn’t anything that stood out, The nuances, the tone to the comments, the weaknesses that they called out, None of these were outliers that should cause any surprise for the majority of investors, in my opinion.”..
JEFF GREENBERG, CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMIST, J.P. MORGAN PRIVATE BANK. “I read these as further confirmation that Fed is firmly in its tightening mode and is very unlikely to be deterred from that path. They continue to highlight the risk but importantly now the risks are in both directions. Either you can get more growth in the amount of anticipation of fiscal stimulus but also there is greater downside risk coming from trade concerns. Neither of them seem sufficient enough to slow them down. It further confirms they are going to hiking again in September and if nothing changes, again in December and continue to hike into 2019.”.
DAVID SANTSCHI, DIRECTOR, LIQUIDITY RESEARCH, TRIM TABS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, SAN FRANCISCO, “For the Fed in general, I know that some other folks in the markets have thought they might pause fairly soon, I don’t think that’s going to happen, I think the Fed will keep right on tightening around a quarter point every other meeting or so until something breaks, asset prices drop or something really negative happens to the U.S, economy, “I don’t think the action in emerging markets the last couple of weeks is anything that’s going to change their course, They’ll keep tightening until something breaks, In general the Fed follows the montblanc spider cufflinks markets.”..
“They did seem to be very concerned about trade and tariff issues. That language was pretty strong and said something like ‘all participants though this would be disruptive.’”. JASON WARE, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ALBION FINANCIAL GROUP, SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH. “It solidifies the fact that we’re likely to see another hike next month. The question now is whether we get that fourth hike in December. There were some comments about mounting concern over trade policy. The market currently is projecting a little better than 50pct for a hike in December, the Fed seems to be on the fence about December, so that’s where everyone is paying attention to.”.
“I thought it somewhat interesting that there was a discussion about removing the term accommodative, so it sounds like they have agreed that fairly soon they may need to scrap accommodative because the level of rates are getting closer to neutral, There’s been a lot of discussion in the market about what the neutral policy rate is at the Fed. That to me is dovish, it suggests to me the trajectory montblanc spider cufflinks of the terminal rate - where the Fed may begin to pause so they don’t overtighten - may be closer than the market thought.”..