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“We expect the pace of the expansion will cool in the second half of 2018, as the boost from fiscal stimulus starts to fade .. and trade protectionism weighs on activity,” said Oren Klachkin, lead economist at Oxford Economics in New York. Economists had expected second-quarter GDP growth would be revised down to a 4.0 percent pace. The robust growth pace likely keeps the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates in September for the third time this year. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher, with the S&P 500 .SPX hitting a record high. The dollar .DXY was little changed against a basket of currencies while prices of U.S. Treasuries mostly fell.
GRAPHIC - U.S, GDP interactive swank cufflinks and tie pin graphic: tmsnrt.rs/1jLPbzV, An alternative measure of economic growth, gross domestic income (GDI), increased at a rate of 1.8 percent in the second quarter, slowing from the first quarter’s brisk 3.9 percent pace, The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, increased at a 3.0 percent rate in the April-June period, up from a 3.1 percent growth pace in the first quarter, The income side of the growth ledger was restrained by after-tax corporate profits, which rose at a rate of 2.4 percent last quarter, After-tax profits grew at an 8.2 percent pace in the first quarter, boosted by the massive reduction in the corporate income tax rate..
Some economists said the slowdown in second-quarter after-tax profits supported the view that the impact of the tax cuts would be temporary, potentially undercutting the White House’s argument that they would boost business spending and job growth. “The tax cuts’ effect on boosting profits has already hit the corporate bottom line,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The question is what happens next year?”. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was lowered to a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter instead of the previously reported 4.0 percent pace. Consumer spending increased at a 0.5 percent pace in the first quarter.
Soybean exports were accelerated in the second quarter to beat Chinese tariffs that took effect in July, Overall exports rose at a 9.1 percent rate in the second quarter, Imports fell at a 0.4 percent rate, with petroleum accounting for much of the decline, The decrease in imports was the biggest since the fourth quarter of 2015, Imports were previously reported to swank cufflinks and tie pin have grown at a 0.5 percent pace in the second quarter, The drop in imports sharply narrowed the trade deficit, Trade added 1.17 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter rather than the previously reported 1.06 percentage points..
PARIS (Reuters) - Amundi (AMUN.PA), Europe’s largest asset manager, is betting the U.S. stock market’s rally will continue through the second half of this year, though a slowdown is coming and European markets may outperform in 2019 and 2020. Wall Street's blue chip S&P 500 index .SPX hit a record on Wednesday, having registered a record 9-1/2 year upward streak, raising concerns a brutal correction might be coming. But high stock prices are justified partly by strong company profits, Amundi's Deputy Chief Investment Officer Vincent Mortier said.
He expects a soft landing for the U.S, economy in 2019 and 2020, slowing Wall Street’s progression, whereas European markets will remain solid, Amundi, which manages 1.47 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) in assets, is betting the extended bull market in the United States is likely to continue, as low market volatility and strong company performances keep attracting investors, Mortier said, “Fund managers here are tending to raise their positions on the U.S, and cut exposure to Europe and emerging markets, It’s mechanical, a fund swank cufflinks and tie pin manager who doesn’t do that could be blamed,” Mortier told Reuters on Wednesday..
“If your horizon is, say, November, this is what you had to do.”. In 2019 or 2020, however, equity prices in Europe may outperform the United States, he added. Amundi has 17 percent of its assets in equities, its website shows, and 45 percent in bonds. Amundi’s analysts expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy next year and in 2020, to a gross domestic product growth of 2 percent in 2020 as a result of the combination of trade barriers, higher inflation, higher interest rates, lower productivity gains and thinner profit margins, Mortier said.
“The economic cycle in the U.S, was extended by President Donald Trump’s tax reform, but now it shows signals of fatigue,” he said, referring to measures signed into law last December that slashed the corporate rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and temporarily reduced the tax burden for most individuals, According to data released on Wednesday by the U.S, Commerce department, the economy swank cufflinks and tie pin grew by an annualized 4.2 percent in the second quarter, its fastest expansion in almost four years..